Nov. 6, 2024 – Wisconsin’s election cemented our status as one of the biggest battleground states for national and state political campaigns. Based on candidate visits and campaign spending, the presidential teams clearly viewed Wisconsin as a crucial state to win for the White House.

Beyond the Presidential race, the race for U.S. Senate was also on the nation’s radar in terms of determining which party controls the Senate in 2025.

While top-of-the-ticket campaigns received a vast amount of discussion and attention, Wisconsin’s “down ballot” races were some of the most competitive in years and had the potential to control the state Legislature, or at the very least, significantly reduce the size of the current Republican majority (at the time of this update, polls were still open).

This is due to the actions taken by the Republican-controlled Senate and Assembly last session when they voted to approve new maps drafted by Governor Tony Evers.

The passage of the new maps came after the Wisconsin Supreme Court agreed to take a case regarding the construction of the state legislative maps that were in place for the 2022 elections. Election observers projected that there would be smaller majorities in both houses come 2025.

Senate and Assembly Races Determine Legislative Majorities

No matter the final outcome of the elections which we may or may not know today (Nov. 6), the makeup of the legislature will be noticeably different. Twenty-eight members of the legislature will not return next session due to retirements or primary election losses. Depending on the final outcomes of the election, there could be nearly one-third of the current legislature turning over.

In the state Senate, much of the focus was on four races considered competitive toss-ups based on partisan composition from previous elections.

Sixteen of the 33 Senate seats (all even number districts) were up for election in 2024. Races in the 8th Senate District, 14th Senate District, 18th Senate District and 30th Senate District received the most focus and spending. While these races were under new district lines, all of the old districts were held by Republicans. Two of the districts (the 8th and 14th) had incumbent Republicans working to hold their seats, while the other two are open seats without an incumbent Senator.

Even if Democrats win all of the potential competitive seats, they will still likely be short of a majority in the Senate. But winning at least three of the seats would open the opportunity for a chance at the majority in the next election cycle in the fall of 2026. The current(2024) partisan breakdown of the Senate is 22 Republicans and 10 Democrats with one vacancy.

All 99 seats in the Assembly were up for election this fall. Based on new district lines and partisan composition, Democratic candidates were poised to add seats in favorable districts.

The new district lines also opened up more competitive elections. Over a dozen districts were competitive toss-ups with razor-thin favorites. In almost all of these districts, Republicans were playing defense trying to maintain the seats they currently hold.

Eight of the most competitive seats had Republican incumbents, three were open seats with no incumbent and the last two competitive seats had Democratic incumbents. The current (2024) partisan makeup of the Assembly is 63 Republicans and 36 Democrats.

In Wisconsin, inauguration day and the start of the 2025-26 session will be Jan. 6, 2025.

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